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PAKS II: State aid for Electricity in Hungary  · State aid Case SA.38454 Hungary Paks II nuclear power station · Annotation by Adina Claici and Norbert Maier

Annotation on European Commission Decision (EU) 2017/2112 of 6 March 2017 on the measure/aid scheme/State aid SA.38454 — 2015/C (ex 2015/N).

DOI https://doi.org/10.21552/estal/2019/1/9

Adina Claici, Norbert Maier


This article describes a recent State aid case that advances the boundaries in the analysis of the Market Economy Investor Principle beyond the level of complexity reached in previous cases. In 2017 the European Commission approved the aid to Paks II nuclear power station in Hungary following an in-depth investigation. We highlight the most original pieces of economic analysis and financial modelling that contributed to the decision. Among others, the Commission used multiple benchmarking methodologies to estimate the profitability of the investment and the parameters of the financial model. Furthermore, a complex probabilistic model ensured robustness of the results. Finally, we explain the reasoning provided by the Commission when rebutting some of the assumptions put forward by Hungary. Keywords: State aid; MEIP; Nuclear power; Hungary.

Adina Claici is the Director of Copenhagen Economics, Brussels and Visiting Professor, College of Europe, Bruges. Norbert Maier is the Managing Economist at Copenhagen Economics, Brussels. The views expressed here are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

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